UK risks missing aerospace MRO boom without national strategy, NMIS warns

The UK must treat aerospace maintenance, repair and overhaul as a strategic growth sector or risk losing ground in one of the fastest-growing areas of global aviation, according to the National Manufacturing Institute Scotland.

A new NMIS-led whitepaper, backed by industry, argues that the UK has built a strong national aerospace strategy around original equipment (OE) manufacturing but has failed to give the same attention to the aftermarket. This has caused a visible imbalance: the UK holds around 13% of the global aerospace original equipment supply chain market, but only around 3% of the global MRO market.

Coreen McCubbin, chief technical officer at NMIS, told Advance the sector now needs a coordinated national response.

“We are calling for £500 million over five years to support this sector,” McCubbin said. “When you look at where ATI funding has come in around the OE production side, you see productivity and market share increase. What we have seen in MRO is decline and stagnation because it has not had the same level of funding.”

The timing is important. Global MRO demand is rising as airlines keep aircraft in service for longer, new aircraft deliveries remain constrained, and new engine platforms generate additional shop visit demand. The NMIS whitepaper says the global MRO market is forecast to reach $139 billion in 2026, with commercial aerospace MRO demand expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% over the next decade.

McCubbin said the UK market, currently worth around £4 billion, could grow to £9 billion if it simply tracks global demand. With a more ambitious strategy, she believes the opportunity could be closer to £15 billion.

“There are lots of decisions being made at the moment around where work should go,” she said. “If we are lagging behind with infrastructure, skills pipeline and technology investment, we are just not going to be able to capture the market that we could.”

That weakness is visible in NMIS’s benchmarking of global MRO hubs. The UK ranks tenth among the markets assessed, dragged down by a weaker innovation score despite its existing aerospace base.

Scoring guide: High globally recognised MRO centre of excellence for innovation; Medium prime for implementing an MRO centre of excellence with innovation; Low higher-risk cluster for investing in and adopting MRO innovation.

Source: NMIS/HVM Catapult assessment of global MRO hubs, based on innovation ecosystem, innovation maturity, contract opportunity and manufacturing footprint.

Although focused primarily on civil aerospace, the white paper says many of the same technologies and skills could support defence platforms too, particularly through improved turnaround times, preventative maintenance and stronger fleet availability.

MRO moves from cost centre to growth lever

The whitepaper argues that MRO should no longer be viewed as a lower-value support activity. Instead, it is increasingly central to productivity, sustainability, fleet availability and future aircraft design.

Countries including Singapore, France and the United States have already treated MRO as a strategic sector, combining investment, innovation hubs and industrial planning. Singapore, which historically lacked the UK’s original equipment strength, now commands around 10% of the global MRO market, more than three times the UK’s share.

By contrast, the UK sector remains fragmented. The whitepaper identifies around 1,300 UK MRO companies, with 85% to 90% classified as SMEs. Many have strong technical capability but limited ability to invest in R&D, bid into innovation programmes or take staff away from live work to develop new processes.

“The companies are highly innovative, but typically in the past they have not had R&D functions,” McCubbin said. “They know they can’t keep doing things the way they have been. They totally recognise that they can’t cope with the demand that is in front of them.”

That is where NMIS sees a gap for public and private investment. McCubbin said the funding is not simply about subsidising existing work, but giving companies the “headroom” to test future technologies, redesign facilities and prepare for a more digital aftermarket.

“They need to be able to have people assigned to projects and programmes that are about future technology application,” she said. “Otherwise, all the innovation will happen elsewhere, and that is where they will put the larger workshare.”

AI, digital twins and the end of the clipboard

The technologies identified in the whitepaper include predictive maintenance, AI-enhanced inspection, automation, robotics, digital twins and advanced repair methods. For McCubbin, one of the most immediate steps is moving more MRO activity into the digital world.

“It is about getting things away from the clipboard,” she said. “Then the next level is using the data, so you can do machine learning, leverage AI as much as possible, and get to more predictive maintenance, then preventative maintenance, and ultimately digital product passports.”

That creates a direct link between original equipment manufacturers and the MRO sector. If aircraft and components can be tracked from raw material through manufacture, service, repair and end of life, the industry can make better decisions about when to repair, reuse, retire or redesign parts.

The sustainability angle could also help attract the next generation of talent, McCubbin argued.

“Younger people are more interested in sustainability and environmental impact,” she said. “This is actually the starting point for getting to circular manufacturing in aerospace in the future.”

Rather than presenting MRO as old-fashioned maintenance work, she believes the sector should be positioned around keeping high-value products in service for longer, reducing waste and informing the next generation of aircraft design.

Skills pressure is already building

The whitepaper highlights an ageing workforce, shortages of skilled labour and the need to train technicians and engineers in digital and automated maintenance technologies. Boeing has forecast a global requirement for around 710,000 new aircraft maintainers over the next two decades.

In the UK, McCubbin said the challenge is not necessarily that young people are uninterested. In some areas, applications are strong. The harder problem is funding and structuring the training pipeline so people can gain the experience companies need.

“There is that sweet spot in between,” she said. “Everybody is looking for somebody who has got five years’ experience, but you have to train them first to get there.”

There is also a strong pay story that the industry may not be telling clearly enough. McCubbin said apprentices who progress into licensed maintenance roles can reach salaries of £90,000 to £120,000 within a few years, making the sector far more attractive than many young people might realise.

Regional clusters already show what is possible. The Ayrshire and Prestwick cluster in the West of Scotland supports around 5,000 employees and generates approximately £575 million in aerospace turnover, with ambitions to grow to £1.6 billion. Wales is another major MRO hub, with around £1.5 billion in turnover and approximately 6,000 people employed in the sector.

Keeping parts in service could ease supply chain pressure

One of the most interesting opportunities, McCubbin said, is using MRO innovation to reduce pressure on aerospace supply chains. Rather than solving shortages only by producing more new parts, the UK could use better data, additive repair, remanufacturing and automated disassembly to keep existing components in service for longer.

“Everybody is struggling with supply chain resilience,” she said. “So it is about retaining the product value at its highest level through the whole lifecycle.”

For NMIS, that is where MRO becomes more than an aftermarket issue. It connects directly to industrial resilience, sustainability, defence readiness and the UK’s ability to capture more value from aircraft throughout their lives.

The whitepaper concludes that the UK already has many of the ingredients needed to compete: strong aerospace heritage, established regional clusters, OEM presence, innovation capability and specialist SMEs. What it lacks is a coherent national framework to connect those strengths.

As McCubbin put it, the aim is not to prescribe a finished answer, but to start a serious conversation between government, industry and innovation bodies.

“We are trying to trigger the reaction,” she said. “We want DBT, Innovate UK and everybody to come on the journey with us, rather than tell them this is the answer.”

For the UK, the question is whether that journey begins before the next wave of MRO work is committed elsewhere.