82% say UK Government is not doing enough to prepare for security threats, RAND survey finds

More than four in five adults in Great Britain believe the UK Government is not doing enough to prepare for future security threats, while two-thirds support increased defence spending, according to new research published by RAND Europe.

The survey, conducted by polling company Focaldata, found that 82% of respondents believe the government is not doing enough to prepare for future threats. Only 10% think current preparations are sufficient.

The findings also reveal limited public confidence in the UK’s ability to respond to a major crisis, with cyberattacks considered a much more likely threat than a conventional military invasion.

The research was presented at RAND Europe’s Ready for 2030: How to accelerate UK Defence conference in London on 10 November, attended by policymakers, military leaders, defence industry representatives and researchers.

The survey covered 1,505 adults across Great Britain between 7 and 10 October 2026.

Cyberattacks seen as a greater threat than invasion

Nearly three-quarters of respondents, 73%, believe a large-scale cyberattack against critical national infrastructure is likely within the next five years.

By comparison, 28% consider a full-scale military invasion likely over the same period.

The findings indicate greater public concern about cyber and hybrid threats than conventional military conflict.

Confidence in the country’s ability to respond to a crisis is also low. Only 36% believe the UK could respond effectively to a conflict beginning tomorrow.

The armed forces received the highest level of confidence among the institutions included in the survey, with 56% of respondents expressing confidence in their ability to respond to a crisis.

The UK Government received 35%, while local councils received 25%.

Majority supports higher defence spending

The survey found that 67% support increasing UK defence spending, although respondents were divided over how the additional expenditure should be funded.

The most popular option was reducing spending in other areas of government, supported by 35%.

Another 20% favoured increased government borrowing, while 19% supported higher taxes.

The research also examined public attitudes towards participation in national defence and emergency preparedness. Voluntary national service received support from 58% of respondents, compared with 43% who supported mandatory national service.

Support for conscription was lower. Only 31% would support conscription if a NATO ally were attacked.

The survey also found that 61% would consider joining a national resilience programme under certain conditions, including financial incentives or time off work.

However, only 23% said they would participate regardless of the circumstances.

Public calls for more open discussion of security risks

Three-quarters of respondents, 76%, agreed that the UK needs a more open and honest conversation about the security threats it faces.

Support for such a discussion rose to 89% among people aged over 55.

RAND Europe also tested how different messages about national security were received and which figures were considered most convincing when communicating them.

The Chief of the Defence Staff emerged as the most convincing and least polarising of the messengers tested, ahead of political figures.

The most persuasive message emphasised that security threats were real and increasing, and that preparations should begin before a crisis occurred.

References to the UK’s history of collective action during the Blitz and the COVID-19 pandemic were the least convincing approach tested.

The findings were released as the government seeks to increase public awareness of emergency preparedness through its Be Ready campaign.

Robertson calls for national approach to defence

Lord George Robertson, lead reviewer of the UK’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review and former NATO Secretary General, said the country needed to make greater progress in preparing the public for future security challenges.

“The country’s mindset will be hugely important to ensuring our future security. The Strategic Defence Review called for a national conversation on defence and security, but little has been done to get it started,” Robertson said.

“We need an all-of-country approach that goes beyond defence, combining deterrence with greater national resilience.”

He said the approach should form part of the forthcoming Defence Readiness Bill.

“With 1,000 days until 2030, we have an opportunity in time to make the country safer and better prepared.”

Ruth Harris, executive director for National Security and Data Science at RAND Europe, said preparing for a potential large-scale conflict required action beyond the armed forces.

“Readiness means being able to absorb shocks, keep going, and make decisions faster than an adversary can create confusion and disruption,” Harris said.

“Preparing for a large-scale conflict by 2030 or earlier is therefore not just a defence challenge, but a national programme.”

She said preparations needed to address the ability of the defence industrial base to increase production, the speed at which allies could operate together and the resilience of essential national systems.

These included digital networks, the economy and critical infrastructure supporting water, electricity, food supplies and healthcare.

Research examines possible conflict by 2030

Alongside the survey, RAND Europe has published an expert paper, Ready for War 2030: A Scenario, examining an illustrative hypothetical NATO-Russia conflict.

The paper considers potential threats, the challenges they could create and possible measures to reduce or prevent their effects.

The survey, titled UK defence and national resilience 2026: How the public sees security threats, preparedness, and government’s role, was commissioned by RAND Europe and conducted online by Focaldata.

Results were weighted to reflect the adult population of Great Britain by age, gender, region, education, ethnicity and voting behaviour in the 2024 General Election.