in Aerospace

Cirium predicts $100bn+ annual passenger aircraft deliveries in 2024

Posted 15 January 2024

Aviation analytics firm Cirium has published its 2023 Fleet Forecast, revealing that annual passenger aircraft deliveries are set to exceed $100 billion in 2024.

Above: Forecast deliveries 2023-2042.
Courtesy Cirium

The forecast, which enters its eleventh year of publication, also predicts that freight capacity will grow 4.1% annually compared with 2022 and that 3,590 freighter aircraft will be supplied over the next 20 years, including 1,060 new build aircraft and 2,530 conversions from passenger aircraft.

Airbus and Boeing will continue to dominate the commercial aircraft manufacturing space, with a combined delivery projection of 89% of all aircraft through to 2042.

Rob Morris (right), Head of Consultancy, at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “With global traffic almost back to 2019 levels, the increased levels of order activity in 2023 shows that the airline industry’s new growth cycle is gaining momentum.

The 2023 Cirium Fleet Forecast predicts new deliveries will total $3.2 trillion over the next 20 years.

The CFF capacity modelling gives an independent view of future demand for aircraft and questions such as: are higher single-aisle production volumes justified? What will be shares between A321neo and 737-10, A350-1000 and 777-9, A350F and 777-8F?  Airbus and Boeing are forecast to take almost 90% of the market but when could they introduce new programmes and what market share will new Chinese programmes take?”

From a regional perspective, Asia will continue to lead the way, with China forecast to have the highest passenger capacity growth rate at over 8%.

This will make it the largest single country in the region for deliveries, with a 19% share of global deliveries, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries with a combined share of 24%.

North American airlines follow with 20% and Europe with 18%. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries, but the share rises to 11% in value terms due to the rich mix of higher value twin-aisle deliveries.

Above: Forecast new deliveries 2023-2042 by airline region.
Courtesy Cirium

The Cirium Fleet Forecast adopts a scenario-based approach that favours examining the most up to date information available, combined with expert commentary and analysis. This year’s forecast is based on the recently adjusted version of Ascend’s 2022 Recovery Scenario 7, which is detailed in the full Fleet Forecast report.




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