IATA reports continued passenger and cargo demand recovery
Image courtesy IATA
Passenger Demand
Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 21.5% compared to February 2023. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 18.7% year-on-year. The February load factor was 80.6% (+1.9ppt compared to February 2023).
International demand rose 26.3% compared to February 2023, capacity was up 25.5% year-on-year and the load factor improved to 79.3% (+0.5ppt on February 2023).
Domestic demand rose 15.0% compared to February 2023, capacity was up 9.4% year-on-year and the load factor was 82.6% (+4.0ppt compared to February 2023).
Note that February 2024 was a leap year with one extra day compared to February 2023. This slightly exaggerates growth in both demand and capacity to the positive.
Willie Walsh (above), IATA’s Director General, said: “The strong start to 2024 continued in February with all markets except North America reporting double-digit growth in passenger traffic. There is good reason to be optimistic about the industry’s prospects in 2024 as airlines accelerate investments in decarbonisation and passenger demand shows resilience in the face of geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
"It is critical that politicians resist the temptation of cash grabs with new taxes that could destabilise this positive trajectory and make travel more expensive. In particular, Europe is a worry as it seems determined to lock in its sluggish economic recovery with uncompetitive tax proposals.”
International Passenger Markets
All regions showed double digit growth for international passenger markets in February 2024 compared to February 2023. For the first time, demand for international services exceeded pre-pandemic levels (+0.9% compared to February 2023). This, however, is skewed by February 2024 being a leap-year with an extra day compared to February 2023.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 53.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 52.1% year-on-year and the load factor rose to 84.9% (+0.6ppt compared to February 2023), the highest among all regions.
European carriers’ saw a 15.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 16.0% year-on-year, and the load factor was 74.7% (flat compared to February 2023).
Middle Eastern airlines saw a 19.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 19.1% year-on-year and the load factor rose to 80.8% (+0.4ppt compared to February 2023).
North American carriers saw a 16.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 17.6% year-on-year, and the load factor fell to 77.7% (-1.1ppt compared to February 2023).
Latin American airlines’ saw a 21.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 18.6% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 84.2% (+1.7ppt compared to February 2023).
African airlines’ saw a 20.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 22.1% year-on-year. The load factor fell to 74.0% (-0.8ppt compared to February 2023).
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic demand growth was led by China (+35.1% compared to February 2023) which benefitted from unrestricted Lunar New Year travel.
Air Cargo
IATA data for February 2024 global air cargo markets showed continuing strong annual growth in demand.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs*), rose by 11.9% compared to February 2023 levels (12.4% for international operations). This is the third consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year demand growth.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 13.4% compared to February 2023 (16.0% for international operations). This was largely related to the increase in international belly capacity accompanying growth in passenger markets (29.5% year-on-year increase), which far exceeded international capacity on freighters (3.2% year-on-year increase).
Walsh said: "February’s demand growth of 11.9% far outpaced the 0.9% expansion in cross-border trade. This strong start for 2024 could see demand surpass the exceptionally high levels of early 2022. It also shows air cargo’s strong resilience in the face of continuing political and economic uncertainties.”
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- Global cross-border trade increased by 0.9% in January.
- In February, the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 51.2, indicating expansion. The new export orders PMI also rose to 49.4, remaining slightly below the 50 threshold that would indicate growth.
- February year-on-year inflation dropped to 2.8% in the EU while rising to 2.8% and 3.2% in Japan and the US respectively. After four months of deflation, China reported a 0.7% increase in inflation year-on-year—a positive development amid concerns over China's economic slowdown.
February Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 11.9% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. This was a significant decrease compared to January’s 24.3% year-on-year growth, likely related to slowing activity after the Lunar New Year celebrations. Capacity increased by 23.1% year-on-year as belly capacity came online with recovery in the passenger business.
North American carriers saw 4.2% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February—the weakest among all regions. Demand on the North America–Europe trade lane grew by 5.2% year-on-year while Asia–North America grew by 3.9% year-on-year. February capacity increased by 1.9% year-on-year.
European carriers saw 14.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. Intra-European air cargo rose by 24.5% year-on-year—the strongest performance in almost three years. Europe – Middle East routes saw demand grow by 39.3% year-on-year, while Europe – North America expanded by 5.2% year-on-year. February capacity increased 13.2% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 20.9% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. The Middle East–Europe market was the strongest performing with +39.3% growth, far ahead of Middle East-Asia which grew by 21.9% year-on-year. February capacity increased 16.2% year-on-year.
Latin American carriers saw 13.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity increased 8.9% year-on-year.
African airlines saw 22.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February—the strongest among all regions. The intra-Africa trade lane showed 42.3% year-on-year growth. February capacity increased by 28.2% year-on-year.
