IATA sees strong passenger and air cargo demand in May
Image courtesy IATA
Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 10.7% compared to May 2023. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 8.5% year-on-year. The May load factor was 83.4% (+1.7ppt compared to May 2023), a record high for May.
International demand rose 14.6% compared to May 2023. Capacity was up 14.1% year-on-year and the load factor improved to 82.8% (+0.3ppt on May 2023). Domestic demand rose 4.7% compared to May 2023, capacity was up 0.1% year-on-year and the load factor was 84.5% (+3.8ppt compared to May 2023).
Willie Walsh (above), IATA’s Director General said: “Strong demand for travel continues with airlines posting a 10.7% year-on-year increase in travel for May. Airlines filled 83.4% of their seats, a record for the month. With May ticket sales for early peak-season travel up nearly 6%, the growth trend shows no signs of abating.
"Airlines are doing everything they can to ensure smooth journeys for all travellers over the peak northern summer period but our expectations of air navigation service providers (ANSPs) are already being tested. With 5.2 million minutes of air traffic control delays racked up in Europe even before the peak season begins, it is clear that Europe’s ANSPs have unresolved challenges and the 32,000 flight delays over the Memorial Day weekend in May show that challenges persist in the US too. Airlines are accountable to their customers, ANSPs must be as well. ANSP performance matters to their airline customers and to millions of travellers. We all need them to do their job efficiently.”
Air passenger market in detail
All regions showed strong growth for international passenger markets in May 2024 compared to May 2023. The load factor increased in all regions except North America.
Asia-Pacific airlines continue to lead the way, with a 27.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 26.0% year-on-year and the load factor rose to 81.6% (+0.6ppt compared to May 2023). This performance maintains Asian carriers as the largest contributor to industry-wide growth in May, accounting for 42% of the year-on-year increase.
European carriers saw an 11.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 11.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.7% (up 0.3ppt compared to May 2023).
Middle Eastern airlines saw a 9.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 9.0% year-on-year and the load factor increased 0.5ppt to 80.7% compared to May 2023. Asian routes to the Middle East are particularly strong, now standing some 32% higher than in 2019. Another notable development is the Europe-Middle East route, which saw an April-May RPK increase for two years in a row, reversing the previous historic pattern of a decline between these months. In the coming months, it will become clearer to what extent these trends could be related to the Russia-Ukraine war.
North American carriers saw an 8.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 9.7% year-on-year, and the load factor fell to 84.0% (-1.2ppt compared to May 2023).
Latin American airlines saw a 15.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 14.3% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 85.1% (+1.2ppt compared to May 2023), the highest among the regions.
African airlines saw a 14.1% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 8.2% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 72.3% (+3.7ppt compared to May 2023). This was the fastest increase in load factor among all regions, although Africa still has the lowest load factor overall.
Domestic passenger markets
Domestic demand increased at a stable pace in May. China’s growth rate surged in line with the post-Labor Day holidays. Japan declined -1.8% possibly reflecting low business and consumer confidence.
Air Cargo
IATA's global air cargo markets data for May 2024 showed continuing strong annual growth in demand. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs*), rose by 14.7% compared to May 2023 levels (15.5% for international operations). This is the sixth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 6.7% compared to May 2023 (10.2% for international operations).
Willie said: "Air cargo demand moved sharply upwards in May across all regions. The sector benefitted from trade growth, booming e-commerce and capacity constraints on maritime shipping. The outlook remains largely positive with purchasing managers showing expectations for future growth. Some dampening, however, could come as the US imposes stricter conditions on e-commerce deliveries from China. Increased costs and transit times for shipments under $800 may deter US consumers and pose significant challenges for growth on the Asia-North America trade lane—the world’s biggest.”
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
In May the Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for global manufacturing output and new export orders indicated expansion (52.6 and 50.4 respectively).
Industrial production and global cross-border trade increased month-on-month in May (0.5% and 1.5% respectively).
Inflation saw a mixed picture in April. In the EU and Japan, inflation rates fell to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively, while rising in the US to 3.3%. In contrast, China’s inflation rate remained near zero (0.3%) reflecting weak domestic demand due to high unemployment, slow income growth, and a crisis in the real estate sector, a trend that has persisted since 2023.
Air cargo market in detail
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 17.8% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. Demand on the Africa-Asia trade lane grew by 40.6% year-on-year, while the Europe-Asia, Within Asia and Middle East-Asia trade lanes rose by 20.4%, 19.2% and 18.6% respectively. Capacity increased by 8.4% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw 8.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May —the weakest among all regions. Demand on the Asia-North America trade lane grew by 12.0% year-on-year, while the North America-Europe route saw an increase of 8.9%, marking the largest demand growth for this route since mid-2022. May capacity increased by 2.5% year-on-year.
European carriers saw 17.2% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. Intra-European air cargo rose by 25.6% compared to May 2023, the fifth month in a row of double-digit annual growth. Europe–Middle East routes saw demand increase by 33.8%. May capacity increased 11.9% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 15.3% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. As mentioned above, the Middle East–Europe market performed particularly well with 33.8% annual growth, ahead of Middle East-Asia which grew by 18.6% year-on-year. May capacity increased 2.7% year-on-year.
Latin American carriers saw 12.7% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. Capacity increased 8.0% year-on-year.
African airlines saw 18.4% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May – the strongest of all regions. Demand on the Africa–Asia market increased by 40.6% compared to May 2023, the strongest performance of all trade lanes. May capacity increased by 21.4% year-on-year.
