IATA reports accelerating passenger and cargo demand growth in October
Image courtesy IATA
Total demand for passengers, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was up 6.6% compared to October 2024. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 5.8% year-on-year. The October load factor was 84.6% (+0.7 ppt compared to October 2024).
International demand rose 8.5% compared to October 2024. Capacity was up 7.1% year-on-year and the load factor was 84.6% (+1.1 ppt compared to October 2024). Domestic demand increased 3.4% compared to October 2024. Capacity was up 3.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (-0.1 ppt compared to October 2024).
Willie Walsh (above), IATA’s Director General, said: "October was a strong month for air travel with demand up 6.6% on the previous year. Of particular note is the 4.5% international traffic growth for carriers based in North America which comes after several months of basically flat performance.
"The trends for the rest of the year look encouraging: scheduled seat capacity in November is set to expand 3.6% and in December by 4.7%. This points to strong demand for holiday travel and businesses looking to complete deals by the end of the year. Considering the uncertainty in the economic outlook for 2026, the resilience of demand for air travel, with the jobs and growth it brings, is a bright spot that governments should nurture with care.”
Regional Breakdown - International Passenger Markets
International RPK growth climbed to 8.5% in October year-on-year, with double-digit growth in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. All regions except the Americas saw load factors improve.
Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 10.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 9.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.4% (+1.4 ppt compared to October 2024). International traffic within Asia had a stellar performance, with traffic to/from China, Japan and Vietnam experiencing particularly robust expansions, each exceeding 10% growth year-on-year.
European carriers had a 7.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 6.0% year-on-year and the load factor was 86.5% (+1.2 ppt compared to October 2024).
North American carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 4.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.2% (-0.1 ppt compared to October 2024). The trans-Atlantic corridor expanded by 3.8% year-on-year in October, a modest improvement over September’s 3.3% increase.
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 10.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 8.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.5% (+2.0 ppt compared to October 2024). The Middle East’s strong growth is partly due to its low base a year ago, when geopolitical tensions disrupted traffic.
Latin American airlines saw a 7.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 8.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (-0.8 ppt compared to October 2024).
African airlines saw a 7.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 5.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.1% (+1.4 ppt compared to October 2024).
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic RPK rose 3.4% over October 2024 and load factor fell by 0.1 ppt to 84.6% on the back of a 3.6% capacity expansion. The US domestic market returned to modest growth after two months of contraction. Brazil’s domestic growth of 12.4% was the standout performance.
Air Cargo
IATA data for October 2025 showed global air cargo markets set a new record in October, up 4.1%, marking eight straight months of growth, with total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometrees (CTK), having risen by 4.1% compared to October 2024 levels (+4.8% for international operations). Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 5.1% compared to October 2024 (+6.4% for international operations).
Willie said: “Air cargo demand grew 4.1% year-on-year in October, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion and setting a new monthly record for volumes. While the Asia-North America trade lane extended its contraction to six months, October saw double-digit or near double-digit growth within Asia, between the Middle East and Europe, and between Europe and Asia. This shifting growth pattern shows that air cargo is enabling global supply chains to adapt to the impact of US tariffs. This positive news is especially significant as the air cargo sector enters the peak fourth quarter shipping season.”
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- The global goods trade grew by 3% year-on-year in September.
- Global industrial production rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, the fastest pace since March 2025 and the strongest monthly reading since late 2022.
- Jet fuel prices increased 2.5% in October even as crude fell, with a tightening diesel market driving the jet crack spread to nearly double last year’s level.
- Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened slightly in October, with the PMI rising for the third consecutive month to reach 51.45. New export orders deteriorated slightly to 48.31, remaining below the 50-point expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.
October Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw an 8.3% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in October. Capacity increased by 7.3% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw a 2.7% year-on-year decrease in growth for air cargo in October, the weakest performance among all regions, tied with Latin America. Capacity increased by 0.1% year-on-year.
European carriers saw a 4.3% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 4.3% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 5.7% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 10.0% year-on-year.
Latin American carriers saw a 2.7% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in October, the slowest growth of all regions, tied with North America. Capacity increased by 2.8% year-on-year.
African airlines saw a 16.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in October, the strongest rise of all regions. Capacity increased by 20.0% year-on-year.
Trade Lane Growth
Air freight volumes in October 2025 increased across most major trade corridors, with the notable exceptions of trade lanes between North America and Asia, and within Europe. Europe–Asia posted the strongest performance with double-digit growth, followed by solid gains on Middle East–Asia, Africa–Asia, and Within Asia routes. Europe–North America also recorded modest positive growth. Europe–Middle East was broadly flat.
