Report reveals UK military partnerships at risk

Image courtesy Adarga

According to a new report from Adarga and the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) for Global Change, the UK must level up its economic and technological influence to maintain its military relationships.

Co-authored by the Adarga Research Institute’s Sam Olsen and William Matthews and the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change’s Melanie Garson and Daniel Sleat, The Geopolitical Vulnerabilities of the UK’s International Military Partnerships – A Case Study Analysis goes beyond the traditional defence lens to understand how geopolitical, economic and technological pressures are affecting the UK’s military partnerships.

The report finds that these pressures are threatening to erode what in some cases are longstanding ties with partner countries, putting vital military support, including training facilities and strategic forward basing, at risk.

The indicative report considers factors including the economic and technological influences that are impacting the UK’s relationships with three countries – Brunei, Kenya and Oman – which were chosen because of their importance as global defence hubs (Kenya and Oman) or their strategic location (Brunei).

Sam Olsen, vice president of the Adarga Research Institute, said: “The research for this paper employed our unique Country Influence Index methodology, AI capabilities and unique data drawn from Adarga’s curated geopolitical dataset, one of the world’s largest. As economic and geopolitical power has shifted, the strength of the UK’s relationships – which were once much more than just military in nature – is being weakened by new dependencies and enablers from other powers, notably China and the US.”   

Adarga’s AI software underpinned the analysis which shows the extent to which wider Chinese or US influence is potentially undermining the UK’s military relationships, with the following results:

• Brunei: substantial risk of the UK’s military relationship being compromised.
• Kenya: moderate risk of the UK’s military relationship being compromised.
• Oman: light risk of the UK’s military relationship being compromised.

The combination of Adarga’s proprietary GenAI and NLP capabilities with deep analytic expertise, enabled the report to take into consideration a breadth of global information that would not be possible via traditional research methods, therefore increasing the quality, speed and depth of insight.

The report makes a number of policy recommendations, which are focused on the UK taking a new approach to its defence partnerships that views its alliances holistically and with a greater understanding of the wider ecosystem in which they sit. These include an audit of the UK’s alliances as part of the ongoing Strategic Defence Review to identify which allies Britain should prioritise. As a result, the Government can unlock a strategy to increase the UK’s technological, economic and defence standing.

Melanie Garson from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, said: “The future of the UK’s defence strategy will heavily depend on our relationships, both longstanding, and new, strategic allies. To make the most of these opportunities, the UK should identify how and where it can draw on its strengths – whether it be financial services, or access to education – to translate its soft power into smart power.”

Read the full report here: https://info.adarga.ai/adarga-tbi-report