IISS report warns Russian-linked drones may be surveying British airbases

A report by think tank IISS entitled “Russia’s UAV Campaign Over Europe” concluded that Britain’s airbases are being surveyed by Russian drones, “highly likely” launched from shadow fleet ships.

The report claimed this was “part of the Kremlin’s wider unconventional war on Europe.” It opens by stating, “Between August 2024 and February 2026, Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) were flown in the airspace of a dozen NATO member states and Ireland.”

The report argued that not every reported sighting was Russian-directed, nor was every reported sighting a UAV. It argued that the aggregate pattern of drone sightings couldn’t be explained by misidentification, hobbyists, etc.

Still, this report drew criticism, with a counterreport by Dronewatch.eu saying the IISS report was mostly based on coincidences of time and place and lacked direct evidence.

Dronewatch.eu stated, “Many reported drones turned out to be perfectly ordinary aircraft, helicopters, stars, planets or other explainable phenomena.” It also pointed out a November 2024 drone report over RAF Lakenheath Airbase that turned out to be a US Air Force F-15.

Britain is changing the rules of engagement

Regardless, the drone scare that rocked the US in late 2024/early 2025, the repeated drone sightings over Europe, and the drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian assets have helped spur the UK to take some action.

There are two primary constraints to countering drone threats over military bases. One is legal, and the other is capacity.

During peacetime, a professional Western military quartered in its home country stands down and does not take action against its own people or their property (except for extreme circumstances).

The military is expected to contact the police for appropriate law enforcement. However, this strategy is not sufficient for time-sensitive matters, such as drones flying over bases. Soldiers were required to jam or divert drones, instead of shooting them down kinetically.

In 2025, The Guardian reported former UK Defence Secretary John Healey as saying, “We are developing new powers – to be put into law through our armed forces bill – to shoot down unidentified drones over UK military sites.”

Britain’s insufficient air defences

The IISS report claims that the UK’s air-defence and civil-aviation radar infrastructure was “designed for a different era and was focused on fast, high-altitude aircraft…”

It says that UAV’s that fly at low altitude during nighttime, without broadcasting their identity and position, pose a challenge as airborne surveillance assets “almost certainly struggle” to distinguish them from the background clutter. Civil aviation also lacks a mechanism to detect and track UAVs that deliberately choose not to announce themselves.

While the UK famously lacks many high-end air defence systems (like Patriot, SAMP/T, Aegis Ashore, NASAAMS), these are the wrong air defence systems anyway for neutralising numerous cheap drones. Like other countries, the UK is investing in drone and counter-drone technology.

Forces News quoted Charlie Edwards, the co-author of the IISS report, as saying that the authors believe the UK and other European countries targeted have the necessary capability to defend themselves from drone surveillance.