August sees continued growth in air cargo demand
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Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 11.4% compared to August 2023 levels (12.4% for international operations). This is the ninth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth, with overall levels reaching heights not seen since the record peaks of 2021. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 6.2% compared to August 2023 (8.2% for international operations). This was largely related to the growth in international belly capacity, which rose 10.9% on the strength of passenger markets. Industry-wide capacity has reached an all-time high.
“We continue to see very good news in air cargo markets. The sector recorded a second consecutive month of record high demand year-to-date. Even with record levels of capacity, yields are up 11.7% on 2023, 2% on the previous month, and 46% above pre-pandemic levels. This strong performance is underpinned by slow but steady growth in global trade, booming e-commerce and continuing capacity constraints on maritime shipping,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- Industrial production stayed level in August month-on-month and global cross-border trade fell marginally with -0.3%.
- In August both the Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for global manufacturing output and the PMI for new export orders were below the 50-mark at 49.9 and 48.4 respectively, indicating contraction.
- Inflation saw a mixed picture in August. In the US and EU, inflation rates fell to 2.6% and 2.4% respectively, the lowest rates since 2021. In contrast, Japan’s inflation ticked up 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%, the highest rate in 10 months. China’s inflation rate continued its moderate upward trend, growing by 0.1 percentage points to reach 0.7%, the highest rate in six months.
August Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 14.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in August – the strongest of all regions. Demand on the Asia-Africa, Asia-Europe and within-Asia markets grew by 21.2%, 18.4% and 16.1% respectively. Intra-Asia demand growth decreased by 5.0 percentage points from the previous month, partially linked to the social unrest in Bangladesh and Typhoon Shanshan in Japan. Both events impacted local logistics operations with airport closures and flight cancellations. Capacity increased by 8.6% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw 4.8% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in August– the lowest of all regions. Demand on the Asia-North America trade lane, the largest trade lane by volume, grew by 9.3% year-on-year, while the North America-Europe route saw a more modest increase of 6.1%. August capacity increased by 2.4% year-on-year.
European carriers saw 13.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in August. The Middle East–Europe trade lane led growth, up 28.9%, maintaining a streak of double-digit annual growth that originated in September 2023. The Europe–Asia route, the second largest market, was up 18.4%. Within Europe also saw double-digit growth, up 15.0%. August capacity increased 9.4% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 13.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in August. As mentioned above, the Middle East–Europe market performed particularly well surging 28.9%, ahead of Middle East-Asia which grew by 13.5% year-on-year. August capacity increased 4.0% year-on-year.
Latin American carriers saw 14.2% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in August. Capacity increased 8.0% year-on-year.
African airlines saw 7.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in August. Demand on the Africa–Asia market increased by 21.1% compared to August 2023, maintaining a streak of double-digit annual growth that originated in the second half of 2023. August capacity increased by 11.4% year-on-year.
