Royal Navy drone fleet could triple missile capacity in North Atlantic war

The Royal Navy could potentially put three times as many missiles into a North Atlantic fight by combining its existing warships with a much larger force of uncrewed vessels and aircraft, according to a former senior Royal Navy officer.

The striking figure comes from Rear Admiral (retired) James Parkin, the Royal Navy’s former Director of Development, who says testing of the concept produced a “substantial uplift in combat mass” and roughly threefold missile capacity in a North Atlantic scenario.

The assessment was published in the Council on Geostrategy’s Britain’s World magazine and subsequently reported by the UK Defence Journal. It is important, however, to keep the figure in context. This is the outcome claimed from war gaming, not evidence that the Royal Navy already possesses three times its present missile firepower.

What it does offer is a glimpse of the thinking behind one of the biggest changes being contemplated for the Royal Navy in decades: stop trying to place every sensor, weapon and crew aboard a small number of increasingly expensive ships. Instead, spread some of those capabilities across many more platforms.

Britain wants more fighting power without simply building more £2 billion warships

The problem driving the change is straightforward. Britain needs more naval presence, particularly in the North Atlantic, but modern warships are becoming increasingly expensive.

Parkin estimates that large, complex European warships now cost about £2 billion to £2.5 billion each. Specialised maritime aircraft can approach £100 million an airframe. At the same time, the Royal Navy has to protect trade routes, contribute to NATO operations, secure critical seabed infrastructure and protect the UK’s continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent.

Simply buying substantially more conventional ships, aircraft and submarines is therefore an expensive answer.

The alternative being pursued is the Hybrid Navy.

Formally set out in the 2025 Strategic Defence Review, the concept keeps highly capable crewed ships, submarines and aircraft at the heart of the fleet but surrounds them with greater numbers of autonomous and remotely operated systems.

The Defence Investment Plan published in June went further. It envisaged crewed ships connected with uncrewed surface and underwater vessels through a secure, high-speed “Maritime Fighting Web”.

Plans include at least six lower-cost Common Combat Vessels, while Projects VANQUISH and PANTHEON are intended to introduce fixed-wing and rotary-wing autonomous collaborative aircraft. At least £1.5 billion has been profiled over four years for the Hybrid Navy as part of £5 billion allocated for advanced uncrewed systems across defence.

The attraction is not simply having more drones. It is about breaking apart functions that traditionally sit together aboard one expensive warship. Detection might come from one platform, targeting information from another and weapons from another. Network them together, and the fleet potentially gains more sensors, more weapons and more places from which to operate without requiring a crew for every platform.

That is the logic behind the claimed increase in missile capacity.

Drones will support warships, not make them disappear

There is an important qualification to the Hybrid Navy vision.

Parkin cautions against assuming that Ukraine’s success with relatively inexpensive uncrewed vessels in the Black Sea means Britain can simply substitute drones for frigates and destroyers.

The missions are different.

Ukraine has demonstrated how small, expendable craft can deny an adversary freedom of movement in a relatively enclosed sea. Britain and NATO face the much larger task of controlling parts of the North Atlantic, protecting oceanic shipping routes, supporting NATO strike groups and safeguarding ballistic-missile submarine operations far from friendly ports.

For that reason, Parkin argues that the future fleet must remain centred on high-end crewed platforms. Uncrewed aircraft and vessels would extend their reach, sensing, firepower and presence rather than replace them.

The Royal Navy is already beginning to explore how that relationship could work outside a computer simulation.

During the recent Dragon Rider trials, a specially modified Wildcat helicopter worked with multiple uncrewed systems across more than 200 miles of southern England. A sensor-equipped Wildcat relayed information from drones to a hub at RNAS Yeovilton, allowing operators to receive real-time video, identify targets, exchange secure messages and remotely take control of drones over considerable distances.

The Navy said the work expanded the distance at which drones could operate ahead of a ship or task group beyond the normal limits of their radio links. The next step is to introduce satellite communications, with the longer-term aim of allowing drone fleets to be controlled securely over much greater distances.

The biggest obstacles may be ashore rather than at sea

Turning those experiments into an operational fleet presents another problem: Britain’s rules and acquisition machinery were largely designed around conventional ships.

Parkin points to a particularly striking example. The safety, regulatory and policy framework required routinely to operate uncrewed surface vessels larger than 24 metres in British waters does not yet exist.

According to his assessment, no uncrewed vessel above that size has received operating clearance from either the Maritime and Coastguard Agency or Defence Maritime Regulator, while neither civilian classification societies nor the Naval Authority and Technical Group have approved such a design.

Technology is also moving much faster than conventional defence procurement.

Here Parkin believes there is a lesson Britain can take from Ukraine: the “rule of six”. The model aims to get operational feedback to manufacturers within six hours, software changes into the field within six days, hardware modifications within six weeks and, if necessary, replace an entire system within six months.