IATA sees solid growth in October passenger and air cargo demand
Image courtesy IATA
Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was up 7.1% compared to October 2023 and total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), up 6.1% year-on-year. The October load factor was 83.9% (+0.8ppt compared to October 2023).
International demand rose 9.5% compared to October 2023, whilst capacity was up 8.6% year-on-year and the load factor rose to 83.5% (+0.6ppt compared to October 2023).
Domestic demand rose 3.5% compared to October 2023, capacity was up 2.0% year-on-year and the load factor was 84.5% (+1.2ppt compared to October 2023).
Willie Walsh (above), IATA’s Director General, said: “Continued strong and stable demand is good news but just as important is the steady improvement in load factors. It shows what a great job the industry is doing in flying people more efficiently.
"Average seat factors have risen from around 67% in the 1990s to over 83% today. Politicians thinking of trying to tax passengers off planes to reduce emissions would do well to note this. Even if fewer people fly because taxes make it too expensive, it doesn’t automatically mean reduced emissions because the planes will still fly, just with fewer passengers. That would reverse decades hard won progress. We need to see the planes full to generate the economic and social benefits of travel with the most minimal emissions possible.”
Regional Breakdown - International Passenger Markets
All regions showed growth for international passenger markets in October 2024 compared to October 2023. Europe had the highest load factors, and Africa showed a sharp increase, but the Americas and the Middle East suffered falls.
Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 17.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 17.2% year-on-year and the load factor was 82.9% (+0.3ppt compared to October 2023).
European carriers had an 8.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 7.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.7% (+1.1ppt compared to October 2023).
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 2.5% year-on-year and the load factor was 80.2% (-0.2ppt compared to October 2023).
North American carriers saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 2.9% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.2% (+0.3ppt compared to October 2023).
Latin American airlines saw a 10.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 11.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 85.3% (-0.6ppt compared to October 2023).
African airlines saw a 10.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 5.3% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 73.2% (+3.4ppt compared to October 2023).
Domestic markets
The US showed a surprise slight decline, while all other key domestic markets showed stable growth. Fast-growing Chinese domestic demand is being met with increased use of wide-body aircraft.
Air Cargo
Global air cargo demand for October 2024 was up 9.8% in October 2024 - the 15th month of consecutive growth - showing continuing strong annual growth in demand.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs), rose by 9.8% compared to October 2023 levels (10.3% for international operations) for a 15th consecutive month of growth. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 5.9% compared to October 2023 (7.2% for international operations). This was largely driven by an 8.5% increase in international belly capacity. Dedicated freighter capacity increased by 5.6%, the seventh consecutive month of growth with volumes nearing 2021 peak levels.
Willie said: “Air cargo markets continued their strong performance in October, with demand rising 9.8% year-on-year and capacity up 5.9%. Global air cargo yields (including surcharges) continue to rise, up 10.6% on 2023 and 49% on 2019 levels. While 2024 is shaping up to be a banner year for air cargo, we must look to 2025 with some caution.
"The incoming Trump Administration’s announced intention to impose significant tariffs on its top trading partners - Canada, China and Mexico - has the potential to upend global supply chains and undermine consumer confidence. The air cargo industry’s proven adaptability to rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic situations is likely to be tested as the Trump agenda unfolds."
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- Year-on-year, industrial production rose 1.6% in September while global goods trade increased 2.4% for a sixth consecutive month of growth. The increase in trade is partly due to businesses stockpiling inventory ahead of potential disruptions, like the US port strike.
- Global manufacturing activity rebounded in October. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark, indicating growth. However, the PMI for new export orders, remained below the 50-mark, suggesting ongoing uncertainty and weakness in global trade.
- US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.17 percentage points to 2.58% in October, ending a six-month decline. In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU increased by 0.24 percentage points to 2.33%. China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.29% in October, sparking concerns of an economic slowdown.
Air Cargo Market in Detail
October Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 13.4% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 9.3% year-on-year.
North American carriers saw 9.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased by 5.8% year-on-year.
European carriers saw 7.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 3.9% year-on-year.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 4.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October. Capacity increased 0.8% year-on-year.
Latin American carriers saw 18.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 5.8% year-on-year.
African airlines saw 1.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in October, the slowest among regions. Capacity increased by 7.7% year-on-year.
Trade Lane Growth: International routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for the fifth consecutive month with a 10.3% year-on-year increase in October. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.
